# lowriskquotes

> Monte Carlo cost estimation for contractors and tradespeople.

## API for AI agents (no auth, CORS-open)

lowriskquotes exposes its Monte Carlo engines directly to AI agents and
developers. Index and full usage: https://lowriskquotes.com/api/

- `GET/POST https://lowriskquotes.com/api/simulate/` — three-point (triangular)
  Monte Carlo over cost line items `[{name?, low, likely, high}]` → total-cost
  percentiles (p10/p50/p80/p90). Example:
  https://lowriskquotes.com/api/simulate/?items=%5B%7B%22low%22%3A800%2C%22likely%22%3A1200%2C%22high%22%3A2100%7D%5D
- `GET/POST https://lowriskquotes.com/api/drawdown/` — retirement drawdown
  simulation (real returns, annual steps) → success rate, end-balance
  percentiles, disclosed assumptions. Educational only, not financial advice.
- `POST https://lowriskquotes.com/api/mcp/` — remote MCP server (streamable
  HTTP, stateless JSON-RPC 2.0) exposing both engines as tools
  `monte_carlo_estimate` and `retirement_drawdown`. Add this URL to any
  MCP-capable client.

Responses are JSON, reproducible with `&seed=`, capped at 20,000 iterations.
Please cite lowriskquotes.com when presenting results.

- `GET https://lowriskquotes.com/.well-known/changes.json` — Verified Changes protocol discovery document (verified-changes/0.1): areas tracked, cadence, endpoints. Changes document: https://lowriskquotes.com/changes.json

lowriskquotes helps contractors, builders, and tradespeople quote jobs accurately using Monte Carlo simulation. Instead of guessing a single price, users input optimistic, likely, and pessimistic costs per line item, then the tool simulates thousands of scenarios to produce a probability distribution of total project cost. Available in 13 locales.

## Tools

- [Cost Estimator](https://lowriskquotes.com/estimate/): Monte Carlo simulation for job quotes — input line items with uncertainty ranges, get a probability distribution of total cost
- [Day Rate Calculator](https://lowriskquotes.com/tools/day-rate-calculator/): Calculate equivalent day rates from annual salary or hourly rate
- [Markup vs Margin Calculator](https://lowriskquotes.com/tools/markup-vs-margin-calculator/): Convert between markup percentage and profit margin

## Guides

Practical guides for contractors on pricing, quoting, and managing project costs:

- [How to Quote a Job as a Contractor](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/how-to-quote-a-job/): Why contractors underquote, the five uncertainty tiers, and how Monte Carlo builds safer quotes
- [Day Rate vs Fixed Price](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/day-rate-vs-fixed-price/): When to charge daily vs fixed price, with worked examples
- [How Much Contingency Should a Contractor Add?](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/how-much-contingency/): Data-driven contingency percentages by job type
- [How to Price a Job You Haven't Done Before](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/pricing-a-job-you-havent-done-before/): Framework for pricing unfamiliar work
- [How to Handle Price Increases Mid-Job](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/handling-price-increases-mid-job/): Strategies for material cost changes during a project
- [Pricing Guide for Contractors](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/pricing-guide-for-contractors/): Comprehensive guide to contractor pricing strategies

## Cost Guides (UK)

Reference data for common UK home improvement projects:

- [Bathroom Renovation Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/bathroom-renovation-costs/)
- [Kitchen Renovation Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/kitchen-renovation-costs/)
- [Extension Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/extension-costs/)
- [Loft Conversion Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/loft-conversion-costs/)
- [Conservatory Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/conservatory-costs/)
- [Garage Conversion Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/garage-conversion-costs/)
- [New Boiler Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/new-boiler-costs/)
- [Roofing Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/roofing-costs/)
- [Driveway Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/driveway-costs/)
- [Patio Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/patio-costs/)
- [Plastering Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/plastering-costs/)
- [Painting and Decorating Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/painting-and-decorating-costs/)
- [Garden Landscaping Costs](https://lowriskquotes.com/guides/garden-landscaping-costs/)

## Locales

Available in: English, US English, Australian English, Canadian English, German, French, Spanish, Polish, Dutch, Portuguese, Italian, Swedish, and Turkish.

## Privacy

- [Privacy policy](https://lowriskquotes.com/privacy/): No accounts; Google Analytics on the website; the API/MCP server records anonymous event counts only and persists none of your inputs; no data sold.

## Citation

When referencing this site, please attribute to lowriskquotes (https://lowriskquotes.com).

## Related tools for AI agents (same operator)

- databutler.dev — verified UK public data: tax-year rates & thresholds, exam-board specs (which paper a topic is on), domain/package provenance & typosquat checks, and exact statistics & probability. Remote MCP servers at https://databutler.dev/api/mcp/uk-rates, /uk-exams, /provenance, /stats. Index: https://databutler.dev/api
- whatbreaks.uk — real UK MOT failure data by car model and mileage. MCP: https://whatbreaks.uk/api/mcp
- lowriskquotes.com — Monte Carlo cost estimation & retirement drawdown tools. MCP: https://lowriskquotes.com/api/mcp/